The FA Cup fifth round runs from Friday 6 March to Monday 9 March, with all eight ties now locked in across the weekend. Wolves host Liverpool on Friday, Mansfield welcome Arsenal on Saturday lunchtime, Wrexham face Chelsea, Newcastle take on Manchester City, Fulham meet Southampton, Port Vale host Sunderland, Leeds play Norwich and West Ham face Brentford on Monday night.
There are three all Premier League ties in this round, but there is still plenty of room for jeopardy. The official FA numbers show Wolves have actually progressed from five of their eight previous FA Cup ties against Liverpool, Mansfield are in the fifth round for the first time since 1974-75, Wrexham have not reached this stage since 1996-97, Newcastle have won nine of their last 10 FA Cup fifth-round ties, Fulham are chasing a third quarter-final in four seasons, Port Vale are here for the first time since 1995-96, Leeds are aiming for a first quarter-final since 2002-03 and Brentford are in the fifth round for the first time since 2018-19.
For the betting approach, the cleanest route is to stay disciplined and keep the picks correlated. That means no backing one team outright while building parlays around the opposite result. All match tips below are based on the Gamblr prices shown in your board, and all main picks are framed for 90 minutes unless stated otherwise.
Wolverhampton Wanderers v Liverpool
Wolves have history on their side in this cup tie, progressing from five of the previous eight FA Cup meetings with Liverpool, while the Reds have lost their last two away matches in the competition. Wolves are also in the fifth round for a third straight season, but the official FA numbers also show they have been knocked out by a Premier League side in nine of the last 10 seasons.
Liverpool are still the likelier side, but the market is short enough that the stronger angle is goals rather than the away win. With Liverpool priced at 1.52 and over 2.5 at 1.61 on Gamblr, the game looks set up for a more open cup tie than a cagey replay-style contest.
Prediction: Liverpool win (@1.52)
Score prediction: Wolves 1-2 Liverpool (@8.00)
Betting tip: Over 2.5 goals (@1.61)
Mansfield Town v Arsenal
This is the first meeting between Mansfield and Arsenal since 1929, and Arsenal have progressed from each of their last 15 FA Cup ties against sides from the third tier or below. Mansfield are in the fifth round for only the fifth time in their history, while Arsenal last reached this stage under Mikel Arteta in the 2019-20 run that ended with the trophy.
The board reflects that gulf. Arsenal are 1.09 to win, and this is one of the few ties where the outright market is probably too short to use on its own. The better route is to tie Arsenal’s superiority to a higher goal line.
Prediction: Arsenal win (@1.09)
Score prediction: Mansfield 0-3 Arsenal (@5.75)
Betting tip: Arsenal to win and over 3.5 goals (@1.78)
Wrexham v Chelsea
Wrexham have not reached the FA Cup fifth round since 1996-97, while Chelsea have progressed from their last 24 FA Cup ties against lower-division sides. The official FA preview also notes that Chelsea have won six of their last eight away games in Wales in all competitions, and Pedro Neto has already scored four FA Cup goals this season.
Chelsea are rightly favoured at 1.41, but Wrexham at home make this awkward enough that I would rather build around Chelsea scoring than simply back the away win. Over 3.5 is 2.25, which is attractive if Chelsea impose themselves.
Prediction: Chelsea win (@1.41)
Score prediction: Wrexham 1-3 Chelsea (@11.00)
Betting tip: Chelsea to win and over 2.5 goals (@1.82)
Newcastle United v Manchester City
This is the headline tie of the round. Newcastle have progressed from nine of their last 10 FA Cup fifth-round ties, but Manchester City have won 23 straight FA Cup matches in the third, fourth and fifth rounds since their last loss at this stage in 2017-18, by an aggregate score of 89-11. City have also already knocked Newcastle out of the League Cup this season.
The pricing is much tighter than City usually command, which tells its own story. Newcastle are 3.50, the draw is 3.80 and City are 2.00. This feels like the best spot on the board to oppose the road favourite and back the home side to make this a real cup night.
Prediction: Newcastle win (@3.50)
Score prediction: Newcastle 2-1 Manchester City (@12.00)
Betting tip: Newcastle draw no bet (@2.55)
Fulham v Southampton
Fulham are trying to reach the quarter-finals for a third time in four seasons, while Southampton have been eliminated in seven of their last eight FA Cup ties against top-flight opponents when playing from outside the top division. The official FA preview also notes Fulham’s recent edge in the matchup, with Southampton losing three of the last four meetings.
At 1.58, Fulham are one of the more reliable favourites of the round. Southampton’s recent unbeaten run in league terms gives them some chance of scoring, but the simplest angle is still to trust the Premier League side at home.
Prediction: Fulham win (@1.58)
Score prediction: Fulham 2-1 Southampton (@8.00)
Betting tip: Fulham to win (@1.58)
Port Vale v Sunderland
Port Vale are in the fifth round for the first time since 1995-96, but they are winless in their last 15 meetings with Premier League opponents in all competitions. Sunderland, meanwhile, have won their last six meetings with Port Vale in all competitions, although the official FA preview points out that both Sunderland goals in the FA Cup this season have come from set plays rather than open play.
Sunderland are 1.41 to win and should have enough, but this does not scream shootout. The cleaner betting angle is to back them without getting too aggressive on the goal line.
Prediction: Sunderland win (@.141)
Score prediction: Port Vale 0-2 Sunderland (@6.00)
Betting tip: Sunderland to win (@1.41)
Leeds United v Norwich City
Leeds have progressed from each of their last six FA Cup ties against sides from a lower division, while Norwich have been eliminated in each of their last 14 FA Cup ties against top-flight sides when playing from outside the division. Leeds are also looking for a first FA Cup quarter-final since 2002-03.
This is one of the clearest markets of the round. Leeds are 1.45 at Elland Road and Norwich are 6.50. Given the matchup history and the official FA numbers around Norwich’s struggles in this exact spot, the home win is one of the stronger straight plays on the coupon.
Prediction: Leeds win (@1.45)
Score prediction: Leeds 2-0 Norwich (@7.50)
Betting tip: Leeds to win (@1.45)
West Ham United v Brentford
Brentford have won seven of their 10 meetings with West Ham since becoming a Premier League side in 2021, which the official FA preview says is more than they have beaten any other side in that period. West Ham, meanwhile, have been eliminated in each of their last three FA Cup fifth-round ties, while Brentford have kept clean sheets in both of their FA Cup matches this season.
This is the closest market outside Newcastle v City. West Ham are 3.00, the draw is 3.33 and Brentford are 2.33. With Brentford’s recent record in the matchup and the cleaner defensive profile, they are the side to be with.
Prediction: Brentford win (@2.33)
Score prediction: West Ham 0-1 Brentford (@10.00)
Betting tip: Brentford to win (@2.33)
Underdog of the round
Newcastle are the underdog of the round.
At 3.50 at home against Manchester City, they are the standout price if you are looking for a result that can beat the market rather than just reflect it. The tie is difficult, but the combination of home atmosphere, a tighter-than-usual City price and Newcastle’s strong FA Cup fifth-round history makes them the most attractive upset angle of the weekend.
Safety parlay
Arsenal to win
Chelsea to win
Fulham to win
Leeds to win
Sunderland to win
Longshot parlay
Newcastle to win
Brentford to win
Liverpool to win and over 2.5 goals
Chelsea to win and over 2.5 goals
Final word
This fifth round has a very clear split. There are a handful of ties where the market expects the stronger side to do the job, and a smaller cluster where the prices suggest real jeopardy.
That makes the best betting approach fairly simple. Trust the stronger favourites where the matchup supports it, back Newcastle as the live home dog, and give Brentford serious respect in the Monday night closer.
The cleanest outright winners on the board are Arsenal, Fulham, Sunderland and Leeds. The best upset angle is Newcastle. The best away-value angle is Brentford.
Bet with Gamblr
All FA Cup fifth round markets are live on Gamblr, including match odds, totals, both teams to score and more detailed football specials across every tie this weekend. If you are backing the favourites, building a same-theme parlay or taking a bigger swing on an underdog, keep the logic of your slip aligned with the match script. New players can also claim the matched first time deposit and get extra value ahead of a huge weekend of cup football.